Using data acquired on 17 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:
15:19 UTC (16:19 CET) on 21 February 2024
The uncertainty in this prediction is now less than one day (+/- 18.82 hours).
This uncertainty is due primarily to the influence of unpredictable solar activity, which affects the density of Earth’s atmosphere and therefore the drag experienced by the satellite.
As the spacecraft’s reentry is ‘natural’, without the possibility to perform manoeuvers, it is impossible to know exactly where and when it will reenter the atmosphere and begin to burn up.