i bet theres a metric fucktonne of info only handful of world leaders on in on. if i had to guess, russia is prolly internally throwing ideas of doing something stupid.
for reasons, well... it could be the f16s already in use are having an effect, and russia is about to respond hard core with air control... it could be that russia is frustrated and now willing to use small scale, 'local nukes' to shock ukraine.
maybe ukraine is starting to take the fight over the border, and that is spooking russia
a lot of these things lead to the war bleeding outside of ukraine, and stepping directly into nato territory on all sides.