China doesn’t really do military conflict. They’re not like Russia who has had several military conflicts in just the past few decades; China hasn’t really done anything like that for over 40 years. If they decide to do anything they’ll probably do something that’s partially economic and partially political. If anyone is going to start a war over Taiwan it’s going to be America; they’ve been signaling it pretty hard.
My guess? China starts restricting trade or infrastructure or energy or something to put pressure on Taiwain, America decides it’s time to liberate them from “the yolk of Chinese tyranny” and introduce some Freedom^TM^, and then it’s WW3