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nekandro

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nekandro ,

What! No way! Nobody could have seen this coming!

nekandro OP ,

Most of the photographic evidence has been comprehensively debunked. Instead of citing Wikipedia, want to present any new evidence that’s not backed by a right-wing Christo-fascist?

nekandro ,

2023Q4 - 5.2% GDP growth

2024Q1 - 5.3% GDP growth (+0.7% over estimates)

Caixin Manufacturing PMI - 51.1

Citi GDP growth estimate 2024 - 5% (up from 4.6%)

This is as China’s real estate sector is actively deflating and dragging down GDP growth (real estate as % of GDP estimated to drop from a high of 24% in 2018 to 19% in 2023) on the order of about 1 percentage point annually.

I’m really not sure what you’re talking about? Labour is rotating into clean tech deployments, GDP growth numbers actively account for the deflation of the real estate bubble, manufacturing is still expanding, and estimates for GDP growth from Western analysts continue to shoot up. Meanwhile, bankrupt developers are having their projects be repurposed into public housing.

In fact, investments are rotating rapidly from real estate into industrial capacity, which tends to have higher short-term ROI and a more significant short-term contribution to GDP.

The biggest concern IMO is the rapid expansion of debt at the national level, which reflects the collapse of LGFVs as a viable method of supporting provincial coffers due to the decline in real estate - China’s government is becoming more centralized, and that has the potential to intervene with the (astonishingly successful) hands-off policy that’s been adopted in the past.

nekandro OP ,

Turns out cope cages are the new big thing in armour

nekandro OP ,

Hamas capabilities alive and well.

Somehow.

nekandro OP ,

Direct sources are important, even if just to innoculate against propaganda.

nekandro OP ,

Striking a facility that’s entirely focused on detecting hostile nuclear launches is… Probably not the smartest thing Ukraine has ever done. Nuclear facilities typically are protected by MAD, and this is going to push Russia to the edge on nuclear weapons use.

This is terrifying and I have no idea why the US hasn’t intervened to clear the waters.

nekandro OP ,

The Security Council resolution drafted by Russia rivaled one backed by the U.S. and Japan that failed last month. The rival drafts focused on different types of weapons, with the U.S. and Japan specifying weapons of mass destruction. The Russian draft discussed all types of weapons.

Why is the US so keen to allow conventional weapons in space?

nekandro OP ,

East Asian politics is played on centimeters, not miles.

A nudge a few centimeters in any given direction has the same effect as a North American leader completely flopping to a different position, because it indicates a fundamental issue: what direction is this guy taking me?

nekandro ,

Is this the one where the DPP legislator ran away with a bill allowing criminal prosecution for corruption?

nekandro ,

Don’t worry we get spied on by everyone.

We’re the US’ whipping boy, though, so you know…

nekandro ,

Zelensky’s approval rate is in the gutter. What do you really think?

I think you’re not understanding the perception of government in Eastern Europe. The mountains are high and the emperor is far away.

nekandro OP ,

Turns out WW3 will be fought with balloons.

nekandro OP ,

This feels self-inflicted to me. People forget that, during the Cold War, the Sino-Soviet split was very much a thing. People also forget that post-war Russia wanted nothing more than to integrate into the broader Western (European) economy, that the US’ recognition of Taiwan as the government of China only ended in the 1970s, that the US was single-handedly responsible for propping up the KMT junta for decades, that China’s interests have never left their immediate neighborhood, or that in fact Taiwan-China relations were normalizing under Ma.

It would not be remiss for me to mention that the big Western powers are currently complaining about Georgia’s foreign agent law that would require organizations which receives significant foreign funding to register themselves… And that foreign ministers of European countries are marching in Tbilisi in protest of the law.

Foreign influence, whether that be direct (through funding) or indirect (through ideology, propaganda) is the foundation of many large social movements. That needs to be acknowledged, and it’s perfectly fine. The notion that nations are meant to be entirely independent is one not based in reality: nobody is pretending Canada could align with Russia without getting nuked to high orbit. The world is built on realpolitik, not on lines drawn on a map.

nekandro OP ,

Do you want to know how many cars in China are from European car manufacturers?

Rebalancing trade is not some big bogeyman.

nekandro ,

The US has done a great job of fucking Canada, now they’re turning their attention to fucking Mexico, too.

It’s giving Sino-Soviet split.

nekandro ,

That’s not the worry. The worry is that China is accumulating all of this industrial capacity (like the US pre-WW2) and that car factories really aren’t that different from APC/tank factories.

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