Vietnam was undone because they killed and brutalized the invading US soldiers until the American appetite for war turned sour. Afghanistan. Iraq.
They killed and brutalized US soldiers. The vast majority of victims on 7 October were civilians.
What Hamas did was show the Israeli public that they aren’t safe, and they did so at the same time that the Netanyahu regime was facing unprecedented public opposition from within Israeli society.
This was poignant timing, yes.
They did so at a time when the US government had no House Speaker or can easily solve it.
This was mostly luck, although there some remote possibility of a wider conspiracy.
They did so at a time when the West was occupied with an endless war in Ukraine and brinkmanship with China over Taiwan.
I give 50/50 odds on whether this was coincidence or not. Suffice it to say, the main reason for the timing is almost certainly to do with Netanyahu - who has previously promoted support of Hamas.
Hamas has actually seriously damaged the occupation with this attack. Will you acknowledge this?
I acknowledge that the strike was incredibly effective, moreso than even the people doing it thought it would be. But I feel like the strike was ultimately more in pursuit of indirect political objectives rather than military objectives. In that sense, it has arguably served Israel more than it has served Palestine - Palestine is under seige, likely to lose land, Netanyahu is still in power and while the polls put Netanyahu down they aren’t driving meaningful change. It could still swing either way though, we won’t know until much later.