Foreign Policy: Why did Hamas decide that now was the time to launch these attacks in southern Israel? Do you see any kind of particular external factors that may have prompted this moment?
Khaled Elgindy: The triggers for this were many. Obviously, the whole context is 56 years of Israeli occupation with no end in sight. And this suffocating 16-year blockade on Gaza, which, as you know, has been the source of many rounds, many different eruptions over the years. Now you have the most extremist government in Israel’s history. Violence in the West Bank has ratcheted up. It’s been the deadliest year in the West Bank in two decades. You have a dramatic spike in terrorism by settlers. Various rampages through different Palestinian villages mostly in the north, and with more or less impunity from the Israeli army, sometimes even with the assistance of the army. And on top of it, there are these regular and increasing encroachments at Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. It’s not a coincidence that Hamas named this operation the Al-Aqsa typhoon.
In the midst of all of that, the Arab world is moving on. The new game in town is Saudi-Israel normalization. The two-state solution is off the table. Palestinian freedom is off the table. Washington is distracted with other issues; it’s not a priority. So I think all of those are the context in which they’re saying, “Look, right now, Palestinians are the only people paying the price for the status quo.” The status quo is extremely comfortable for Israel, and the rest of the international community is complacent, because most of the costs are borne by the Palestinians. So at its core, Hamas’s calculation is to radically overturn that calculation.