BP has predicted that the world’s demand for oil will peak next year, bringing an end to rising global carbon emissions by the mid-2020s amid a surge in wind and solar power.
BP predicts in both scenarios that carbon emissions will reach a peak in the middle of the decade amid a rapid expansion of wind and solar power as technology costs continue to fall.
However, the report sets out starkly different pathways for the future demand for gas, which has emerged in recent years as key growth area for energy companies including BP.
The company attracted anger from environmental campaigners after watering down a pledge to cut oil and gas production by 40% by 2030, compared with 2019 levels, to a 25% decline after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ignited a surge in global energy market prices.
The outlook’s findings are likely to stoke fears that the global shift away from fossil fuels towards clean power may be slowing, in part due to rising energy demand in developing economies.
BP’s outlook predicts wind and solar power capacity will increase eightfold by 2050 under the world’s current climate policies and by a factor of 14 under its net zero scenario, compared with 2022 levels.
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