China’s peaking isn’t on a minute-to-minute scale, but on a day-to-day scale. China is worried about two scenarios:
the US deciding to enter a hot war with China
a heat wave or cold snap (like they’ve been getting recently) that forces rolling blackouts
And has one key consideration for it:
China lacks substantial domestic O&G reserves.
These are critical geopolitical concerns that China needs to address.
Plus, Chinese coal plants are literally state-of-the-art. Whereas the US has one ultra-supercritical plant, China has at least a hundred. China has excess construction capacity, so demolishing a 30-yo plant for a new one is entirely practical. We also know that China’s coal power plant capacity factors have been dropping like a rock, so SOMETHING is happening that’s reducing their utilization significantly.