I would say that based on whatever calculus/evidence they have access to, Canada has decided that the threat of an all-out war, or least Israel carpet bombing Lebanon with munitions the US just sent them is high enough to warrant evacuation. That’s an above-average signal that something bad is about to happen, because it’s a big deal to evacuate all those people. It doesn’t mean something is definitely going to happen.
That said, bibi needs forever war for the time being because he’s facing jail if he gets punted from his position, and they’ve pummeled Gaza about as much as they can at this point while still pretending that they can end Hamas, so murdering civilians in another country is probably starting to look pretty appetizing to him. They’ll still keep slamming Gaza but he needs something big and existential for his domestic audience to keep them from taking him out.
So long story short, I’d say the probabilities of something like regional conflict happening have been raising pretty sharply lately. Hopefully the Canadian evac will prove to be alarmist, but our timeline hasn’t exactly been going the way I hope last few years so…
Gen. Wayne Eyre, the chief of the defence staff, made the remarks in a wide-ranging exit interview with CBC News on Wednesday prior to his retirement next month.
He noted that in terms of the Canadian government response, Global Affairs Canada is in charge, but allied military leaders who will have to carry out the evacuation met Tuesday to discuss what’s available and how it can be done safely.
Eighteen years ago, over a two week period in July, almost 15,000 people — most of them Canadians — were evacuated from Lebanon after war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah.
The vast majority of those troops returned home, but Eyre says the contingency plans remained in place and now they’re “leaning in” with extensive preparations, including aircraft maintenance.
Last fall, Global Affairs Canada rented a large capacity ferry to handle the flow of evacuees from Lebanon.
Similar to what happened in 2006, the plan would involve evacuating people from Lebanon by sea to the island of Cyprus where they would board flights for home.
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