I don’t find the description of ‘megalomaniac’ for his reasoning behind going to Mars unfair. But I don’t find his reasoning insane either. It is a ‘plan B’ plan of sorts, but on a very, very large timescale. Science says the end of humanity on earth, eventually, is a given. There is a minuscule chance we will be wiped out this century and, with increasing certainty, other opportunities up until the certain end in about half a billion years. That sounds like there is no hurry at all, and there most likely really isn’t. But there is another factor and that is that the progress of science and technology is not a given. History proves that empires fall, not a single one has endured for very long. And with the fall of empires, knowledge has been lost. A lot of it. The chances of that occurring are far greater, very likely even if we look at history, than the complete downfall of humanity. So his reasoning is that now, for the first time in history, humanity has gained the knowledge and ability to leave their own planet. And there is no guarantee at all that we will maintain that capability for long or regain it ever again in the future. So why not aim for it now while we are sure we can?
Is that ridiculous megalomaniac reasoning? Yeah, probably. But it is at least not a simple ‘we’re all going to die, we need a plan B pronto!’. It is mostly ‘why not do this incredibly exciting thing?’ in stead of ‘everyone panic, we have to do this!’.
I don’t care too much about the reasoning. What I like about what SpaceX is doing is that for the first time since Shuttle first flew, finally someone is pushing boundaries in a big way. Space has been coasting, or even regressing in some areas, since the late ‘70’s. It got so far that the US was not even able to send people up at all for 10 years. SpaceX seem to have lit a torch and said ‘let’s change that, let’s set inspiring goals and see how far we can go’. They made space exciting again. I am not the biggest fan of big corporate, but government could not have done the same thing. NASA is amazing, but they are fully dependent on congress for funding and congress does not see exciting projects for humanity, they see a job program for their home states and base their decisions (and thus the agenda of NASA) on that viewpoint. If it requires private enterprise to pick up the torch, so be it. If it requires a controversial person like Musk to make it happen, I’ll take it. For years now every step of the Starship program has made me excited like a child on Christmas morning. The more I learn about it, the more I realise how utterly ridiculous it is, the more excited I am about every step forward. The people at SpaceX who make it all happen have so much talent, knowledge and above all drive and excitement. I can easily look past the clown at the top and cheer with them for all their successes.