Yeah it is exactly what people engaging in fraud rely on. The more money that is on the line, the less likely the heuristic works. Reddit had an obsession with popular heuristics. The whole point of one is to quickly make an assessment when you don’t have either the time or resources. It is not a proof, never has been. The other one people always bring up is Occam’s razor. All razors are heuristics, heuristics are never proof.
Although in this case the claim is that Elon is intentionally tanking twitter, which is also a ridiculous claim.