the dead end of commercial space is that it can only function as a factor of government work. it’s not a viable industry by itself.
The alternative to this LEO space work is that taxpayers pay 6.25 times as much for the same service. Where is the logic in that?
you can see this tale play out time and time again in other industries that have had the same problem, it doesn’t end well, it ends badly.
I disagree with your assessment that it is an inevitability. However, lets assume for a moment you’re right and it ends in bankruptcy for SpaceX. In the time it will have operated it will have:
launched over 300 times
proven rocket reusability
drastically lowered the cost of spaceflight around the globe from all providers
created and deployed a global constellation of high speed and low latency internet access satellites giving affordable access to many corners of the globe previously unserved
put an additional 42 human into orbit
If commercial space company SpaceX went out of business tomorrow, we’d still be better off than had NASA ever contracted with them.