The big lesson from Second Life to me is that it’s a novelty for 95% of potential users, and a fixation for a few true believers.
VR and AR are in that era of radio in the 1920s, or personal computers in 1977. They’re interesting, people might gawk at one for a little while if given access to it, but right now, the long-term audience is going to be primarily enthusiasts who are passionate about the technology for its own sake.
We’re still waiting for a lot of details to snap into place to make it broadly appealing:
The hardware and setup needs to be turnkey. Newer kit is getting a lot closer, but I think it’s going to be hard because you have to factor in things like “setting up a wide enough floor space to avoid injuring yourself when using it” and “we haven’t really resolved that this gives a fair number of people violent sickness”
There need to be killer apps. Some of the VR experiences seem like they’d be fun, but eventually exhausting. It’s sort of like the motion control (Wii/Kinect/PSMove) trend-- people enjoyed them, but it seemed like it burnt through quickly, rather than becoming a core part of new gaming experiences going forward.
AR likely has an easier road to “killer app” because it can be applied to a bunch of vertical use cases; I’m picturing a fry-cook with a heads-up display that tracks how long each patty has been on the grille and its internal temperature, for example. Even if mainstream consumers never buy AR gear, there might be a million devices sold to businesses. Makes me think of Windows CE; the consumer launch was muted, but it was on a billion scanner-oriented devices for years.