Why are you wanting to move the VM to a bare metal install?
In my experience, I would think the more efficient method is to install a hypervisor like proxmox and move the VM and there. And then run another VM for pihole, and maybe even a third for tailscale. It lets you have the ability to expand as you need and to better manage backups and services easier.
Otherwise, if you are determined to go from VM to bare metal, you want to find a backup solution that can backup the whole machine and restore it with a recovery disk. I think veeam and Acronis would work. There are tons out there.