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kernelPanic , 11 months ago First, fuck you! I couldn’t sleep. The possibility to win the car when you change is the possibility of your first choice to be goat, which is 2/3, because you only win when your first choice is goat when you always change. x1: you win x2: you change x3: you pick goat at first choice P(x1|x2,x3)=1 P(x1)=1/2 P(x3)=2/3 P(x2)=1/2 P(x1|x2) =? Chain theory of probability: P(x1,x2,x3)=P(x3|x1,x2)P(x1|x2)P(x2)=P(x1|x2,x3)P(x2|x3)P(x3) From Bayes theorem: P(x3|x1,x2)= P(x1|x2,x3)P(x2)/P(x1) =1 x2 and x3 are independent P(x2|x3)=P(x2) P(x1| x2)=P(x3)=2/3 P(x2|x1)=P(x1|x2)P(x2)/P(X1)=P(x1|x2) P(x1=1|x2=0) = 1- P(x1=1|x2=1) = 1\3 is the probability to win if u do not change.
First, fuck you! I couldn’t sleep. The possibility to win the car when you change is the possibility of your first choice to be goat, which is 2/3, because you only win when your first choice is goat when you always change.
x1: you win
x2: you change
x3: you pick goat at first choice
P(x1|x2,x3)=1 P(x1)=1/2 P(x3)=2/3 P(x2)=1/2
P(x1|x2) =?
Chain theory of probability:
P(x1,x2,x3)=P(x3|x1,x2)P(x1|x2)P(x2)=P(x1|x2,x3)P(x2|x3)P(x3)
From Bayes theorem: P(x3|x1,x2)= P(x1|x2,x3)P(x2)/P(x1) =1
x2 and x3 are independent P(x2|x3)=P(x2)
P(x1| x2)=P(x3)=2/3 P(x2|x1)=P(x1|x2)P(x2)/P(X1)=P(x1|x2)
P(x1=1|x2=0) = 1- P(x1=1|x2=1) = 1\3 is the probability to win if u do not change.