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philpo ,

Yeah. Came here to write exactly this.

What OP misunderstood is the old tale of mortality vs. lethality.

In a simplified explanation: Mortality defines the percentage of deaths in a population by a cause.

Lethality is the percentage of deaths of people suffering from a cause.

In our case:

  • Smokers might only get hit by a bus slightly less often or slightly more often(1) (Mortality)
  • But they have a far greater chance of dying from it when they get hit. The same can be said for being shot,etc. Being a smoker always reduces your statistical chances.

(1:Actually quite fascinating - there is conflicting evidence on that one, as smoking is often statistically associated with substance abuse and bad health - which increases the likelihood of major trauma events, but on the other hand smokers die earlier,leaving more old people to walk in front of vehicles due to reduced cognitive abilities)

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