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Cuberoot , (edited )

It’s hard to predict this in advance, since it’s sensitive to things like voter turnout in non-competitive states. For instance, a blizzard in New England could affect the popular vote without impacting the electoral college vote. So I’ll just tell you how to calculate it.

First, identify the tipping point state. Some guys think it might be Michigan this year. Meaning either candidate can win by winning Michigan and every state more favorable to them than Michigan. Other good guesses are Pennsylvania and maybe Arizona. Then take the difference between a candidate’s margin in Michigan verses their national average.

2020: The tipping point state was Wisconsin. Biden won WI by 0.6% and nationally by 4.5% representing a 3.9% electoral college advantage to the Republican.

2012: The tipping point state was Colorado. Obama won CO by 5.4% and nationally by 3.9% representing a 1.5% electoral college advantage to the Democrat.

So the electoral college doesn’t intrinsically benefit the Republicans, but it probably will this year.

stinerman ,
@stinerman@midwest.social avatar

This will help you a bit to answer your own question: www.270towin.comYou can play with scenarios there.

how much does she have to win by to flip the electoral college to her side?

This misunderstands how our elections work. If you win a state by one vote (offer not valid in Nebraska and Maine), you get all that state’s electoral votes. If you flip several thousand votes in a few states, Trump wins the 2020 election even though Biden had around 7,000,000 more in the popular vote total. Also, if you’re from the UK, Americans are a little idiosyncratic in their voting. A good deal of people do the equivalent of voting for a Tory even if they wanted Labour in power. It’s called vote splitting, and it’s generally a terrible idea.

JusticeForPorygon ,
@JusticeForPorygon@lemmy.world avatar

I believe this is the last election where Maine will have split electoral votes, since they joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact earlier this year.

kersploosh ,
@kersploosh@sh.itjust.works avatar

If you win a state by one vote (offer not valid in Nebraska and Maine), you get all that state’s electoral votes.

I’m going to pile on to your good answer.

Since you only need 51% to win all of a state’s electoral votes, any additional votes beyond 51% could be considered excess votes that are not helpful. The system rewards candidates whose supporters are spread around, and punishes candidates whose supporters are heavily concentrated in a handful of states.

For example, in 2016 Hilary Clinton got 4,269,978 more votes in California than Trump. That’s 4,269,977 more than she needed to win the state. Meanwhile, she lost Michigan by 10,704 votes, lost Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, lost Florida by 112,912, etc. Hell, she lost Texas by less than a million votes. If Hilary’s supporters in California had been spread around in other states she would have won the national election easily.

ReallyActuallyFrankenstein ,

The practical answer is 3-4% above to counteract the right-wing effect of the electoral college. Yes, it all matters on what states she wins.

The theoretical answer is that Kamala could get less votes, just like Trump did in 2016, and still “win.” It’s not practical because the swing states are more conservative than the median population of the country as a whole, which means it’s extremely unlikely those swing states will vote for Kamala while Trump gets more votes elsewhere.

The places you need to watch are Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and to a lesser extent Ohio, Minnesota and Florida. The 538 polls will give you a sense of where those states are leading, and you can see different maps here. polling is imperfect, and frankly I can’t take the anxiety of watching that data day-to-day.

Kidplayer_666 ,

Depends fully on what states she wins

Snailpope ,

This

It’s all about the handful of swing states, 2/3rds of the electoral votes are basically locked it. She might get a few from out of left field but that has yet to be seen

Take Nebraska, I can tell you right now we will give Kamala 1 electoral vote and the remaining 4 to Tump.

Edit: Anicdotal evidence

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