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dudinax , 11 days ago You can make the simple inductive calculation that the probability is 1 / (total number of nights moon didn’t fall out of sky). You can also look at the total energy needed to de-orbit the moon and come up with a frequencie for events at least of that magnitude. They are easy calculations and they both give infinitesimal results. If that weren’t true, there’d be no way to tell if your intuition were correct.
You can make the simple inductive calculation that the probability is 1 / (total number of nights moon didn’t fall out of sky).
You can also look at the total energy needed to de-orbit the moon and come up with a frequencie for events at least of that magnitude.
They are easy calculations and they both give infinitesimal results. If that weren’t true, there’d be no way to tell if your intuition were correct.