They aren’t facts, again, they’re wishful thinking. I’m a long time contributor and developer and I can assure you that with things as complex as X and Wayland things would move slowly even if everybody was of the same mind, let alone in the “herding cats” style of FOSS.
Wayland has been in development for 15 years and it’s still not ready – please, it’s not, and stomping our feet and claiming otherwise won’t make it so. Another 5 years will probably see it reach a more stable state.
What do I mean by ready? Well the desktop stack [on Linux and *NIX] is extremely complex. Whenever you’re dealing with something extremely complex in software, over the years, you amass a large amount of solutions that solve real world problems. That’s what I call “ready”. Most of those solutions will be dealing with quirks and use cases which do not affect everybody equally, but they’re each crucial in their own way to a varying slice of the userbase.
Whenever you rewrite something from scratch you throw away the bulk of those quirks. It’s a common fallacy for developers to look at the shiny new thing and think that it’s better. In reality it’s worthless without the quirks, and accumulating those quirks all over again takes a long time. X has been accumulating them for 40 years. Wayland is barely scratching the surface.
The fact the protocol places and splits the burden over the various DE and WM teams will NOT help. We will need libraries that solve the same problem once instead of over and over, and most DE/WM will come to depend on those libraries. The end result will be eerily similar to X. Ironically, by the time Wayland will be done it will have spent a comparable time in development to X, and will have accumulated the same amount of baggage that people dislike about X.
What percentage of the Linux Desktop universe are you expecting will still be using X at the end of 2025?
More or less the same that’s using X right now. GNOME, KDE and the various distros will get a bloody nose trying to force Wayland through but if that’s the only way they learn, so be it.
The Steam Deck actually has one of the few use cases where Wayland actually makes sense, it’s a turnkey, highly controlled stack (both software and hardware) where users don’t have any reasons to care about what’s under the hood. I expect them to switch ASAP.
Another place where Wayland can be used straightaway is the desktop graphical login screen (which is the original reason it was created for anyway). It’s a singular application with reduced requirements and simplistic interactions.