If you are already familiar with one package manager, pick a distro that also uses that package manager.
When deciding on the release track, the harder it is to recover the system, the more stable the track should be. Stable does not imply secure.
As you move up through virtualization layers, the less stable the track needs to be, allowing access to more recent features.
Steer clear of distros that pride themselves on using musl. It’s historically slow and incomplete. Don’t buy into the marketing.
Think about IaC. Remote management is a lot more comfortable if you can consider your server ephemeral. You’ll appreciate the work on the day you need to upgrade to a new major release of the distro.