Mmm, maybe. “Joining the dots” also can be read as “taking a lot of bad feeling about X, and some good activity about Y and exaggerating both”
EL is pretty dominant still, although much of that seems to be Rocky/Alma rather than RHEL, but there’s no way to get real numbers.
What I have seen is a lot of uptick in Debian and Ubuntu servers. We are moving away from EL towards Debian now because of what we perceive as ongoing instability in the EL ecosystem caused by Redhat. Our business depends on a reliable Linux OS so we’re doing the maths.