Don’t look at the conviction rate for federal prosecutors then. And stock up on BBQ sauce. A NY jury would convict Trump of just being fat and ugly, that’s how much everyone (including Republicans) hate him. People literally go out of their way to make their dogs pee on Trump Tower.
You will just change your mind and say “He should have gotten more time! 5 years is nothing. House arrest? His house is huge!”
For a former president, that’s the worst possible.
Such a high win rate for federal prosecutions is indicative of a problem. Whether that be only taking cases which they are assured victory or winning against those who are not guilty, they’re both wrong.
The criminal justice system is intended to be biased in favor of the defendants as innocent until proven guilty. Consequently, if everything were working perfectly, I'd expect prosecutors to only charge people if they were extremely confident that they could prove the person's guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. Taking cases without solid evidence and regularly losing at trial would be indicative of a major problem.
Republican voters absolutely still love him. Just look at early polling for the GOP primaries, he’s still leading by a huge landslide in the majority of states: nytimes.com/…/2024-poll-nyt-siena-trump-republica…
Is it depressing as hell that so many people are still obsessed with this corrupt, shitty buffoon? Definitely. But I keep seeing more and more comments on here acting like Trump is irrelevant and his base is virtually non-existent when that’s just not true (which is ironic, given how one of the main criticisms against Trump and his ilk is their detachment from reality).
The thing is that they, like state and local prosecutors, prosecute poor people who can’t afford effective representation tens if not hundreds of times as often.
If you isolate their stats with regards to rich and/or powerful defendants like the Mango Mussolini, suddenly they don’t convict at anywhere near that rate.
The difference is so immense that even an obviously guilty oaf with incompetent and unhinged lawyers like him is more likely than not to win or at the very least delay until his own death at his country club home.
Indictments don’t count for shit without guilty verdicts and seeing the orange asshole behind bars, and I’m not even a doomer about this, I believe it’ll happen, but claiming victory before winning is always folly, just ask Trump.
Not that I disagree but it’s hilarious to see the contortions about how the indictments are no big deal from the “ZoMG Killary’s gonna get indicted any day now” crowd.
I’m not sure you understand what a doomer is. Doomers (as a meme) are people who are incredibly cynical and jaded; who believe that we as a species are fucked, and any attempt to stop it is like an antelope thrashing in the mouth of a lion. This idea isn’t inherently right-wing or left-wing, nor is it specific to any particular country (though it’s probably more common in the left-wing western anglo-sphere). It’s the idea that while it technically might not be too late to reverse course and solve things like wealth inequality, climate change, police brutality, fascism, etc; the fact that the people who benefit from these things are also the ones in power means it’ll never happen. It’ll always be 90% words, 10% action until it truly is too late; at which point they’ll declare that they tried as hard as they could and there’s nothing else to be done.
The people you’re describing aren’t actually doomers, they’re just concern trolls.
Trump should have been in prison orange years ago. But there’s a better chance of him becoming president again. He’s protected by the American right wing and that is probably enough to keep him not only safe from legal consequences but to keep him in power. They won’t drop him until voters do.
Personally, I’m just incredibly jaded and have literally no faith in anything anymore. You’re expecting that the feds and state governments will be willing to enforce the 14th amendment at the risk of personal safety. I’m expecting that they’re all gonna raise a big huff and fuss but then pussy out about actually blocking trump from running for president.
I don’t recall seeing anybody say he wouldn’t be indicted, but that ultimately he wouldn’t face “serious” consequences or any jail time. We’ve yet to find out what, if any, consequences he’ll actually face. My uneducated guess is that he’ll just be given house arrest for everything, based on age and his former position as President. It sounds like the Georgia indictment may carry mandatory prison time, but we still haven’t seen how any of that will play out, it could still be affected by Republican fuckery. I would love to be proven wrong on everything and he gets the book thrown at him, but current/former world leaders have a tendency to not face the consequences of their actions (except in some extreme situations).
While good, indictments are only one step in the legal process, they are not the end result. Most people were not confident we would even make it this far into the legal process with how much the justice system favors those with money and power and this situation has literally never happened in our history. We have never had a former president indicted for crimes.
I’ve never wanted to be wrong about anything more than this in my entire life, but Trump will never be put behind bars. House arrest in Trump Tower? Most likely. Going to a white collar “resort prison” à la Martha Stewart? Less likely, but still possible. Going to actual Federal or State prison? I just can’t see it.
If Trump is clearly going to lose in court, his lawyers would be wise to posture him as vulnerable and not fit to serve his sentence in the general population.
Also, who fucking knows how the Secret Service are going to handle this one. Apparently there is no way to revoke a former presidents lifetime security detail, even if they are impeached or convicted of a felony. Only an act of congress can do so, so good luck getting a majority of both chambers to uphold the rule of law and send a felon to prison. Republicans will protect this piece of trash until their very last breath.
