I doubt any company would want to give their competitor 20-30% of their profits, so in my mind it isn’t a matter of if, but a matter of when they start locking all their franchises off from PS. What will be most interesting to me will be how will they do it. Will they just drop franchises so they don’t have to face the backlash for turning a franchise into an exclusive? Will they just make up a new “franchise” with a new name but similar gameplay? Will they just slowly one by one exclusive them off to try and reduce blowback? Do it all at once to get it out of the way?
This generation has already been mostly played out and I don’t see large changes making a large difference, but once the next generation comes around in another 3-5 years I imagine they will want to be in a place where they can leverage all these franchises to get people excited to buy their new box over their competitors. And you do that with exclusives.