I think there are plenty of valid criticisms of the subscription model, and the reasons for those criticisms are the same as many of the reasons growth has flat lined. Labeling criticism as fear mongering seems like overly reductive spin, especially when this analyst doesn’t seem to be interested in addressing those criticisms.
It’s like saying “data shows very few people die annually from eating tide pods, therefore maybe we shouldn’t be so scared of eating tide pods.” Like, no, it’s because nearly everyone realises it’s a very bad idea that nobody dies from it.
You’ve crunched the numbers correctly, but have drawn the exact wrong conclusion.