I don’t disagree with that. Threads’ biggest strength is also its biggest weakness: we’ve never seen a huge network establish overnight before and it will struggle to define a culture outside of what Meta serves up via algorithm.
But my niche subs on Reddit had a few thousand users, still only just enough to keep them useful. And it required Reddit’s 50 million (daily) users to provide that many.
There will be a lot of people who want the smaller network. But many of the Twitter/Reddit refugees don’t, really. And that’s where Fedi-growth is coming from right now.