Watching Johnson when he talked recently about going forward with the aide package he no longer looked like he was a hostage. I think that’s because the Dems promised to help him keep his seat in exchange for a little compromise.
If he were to be unseated, the Dems have a decent chance of taking control with so many Rs leaving recently. It would only take a couple Rs breaking ranks with the extreme MAGA representatives pushing to remove Johnson, to give the Dems control.
However Dem control I don’t think would matter much at this point. The Republican messaging would just switch to blaming all of the bullshit they’ve done this session on the Dems. A large majority of the Republican base just accepts what they’re told at face value, so they would 100% accept being told that nothing being accomplished was because the Dems prevented it rather than the Republicans refusing to bring things to the floor in the first place.
There is no real advantage to the Dems taking control so close to the election, just giving Republicans a new soap box to spread lies to a base they know doesn’t look past the headlines on their own echo chamber networks.