I asked. Captain Vietnam told me Captain America is the most inhuman thing in existence, and that Vietnam and China are well on the way to joining hands.
I mean I read it. It seems like his highest ranking role was in chemical and biological hazard containment and management. He did see some action in the first gulf war, but it’s not clear to me his experiences with mercenaries then.
He alluding to and projecting the knowledge of what a group of mercenaries will do in this situation. I think it’s highly speculative.
You should probably pay a bit closer attention to his title and responsibilities during the invasion and occupation of Iraq, a war that used quite a lot of Wagner-style mercenaries
So many, in fact, we don’t actually know how many died, because using disposable and desperate troops makes for cleaner official casualty reports.
It’s okay to admit you made a bad assumption, fam, it’s definitely an understandable one.
In 1991, he saw active service in Iraq with the 14th/20th King’s Hussars as part of the First Gulf War.[11]
He was a captain in a British regiment during the first Gulf war. As far as I know no mercenary on either side of that conflict. I think he’s being highly speculative.
It’s enough for me to know that he has a long and distinguished career in the military, combat zones, and weapons design to allow him to make a casual comment like “in my experience, mercenaries will take anyone’s money.”
This is not some bold claim that requires extraordinary evidence.
That I should not speculate on the motives or incentives of groups that I don’t have direct experience with. It causes me to make assumptions that aren’t validated by reality.
Edit: To be clear, I didn’t write the article. My bona fides don’t have any bearing on this because I’m not the one writing articles for the Telegraph suggesting I can predict the actions of mercenary groups. My read is that the author shouldn’t be speculating either (without providing additional information).
Dude has a problem with his question being answered.
The guy who wrote the article has experience in a combat zone and has seen more military action than he will ever have.
By any standard these are speculations but they are presented by someone who has direct knowledge about these kind of groups, therefore they might be slightly more reliable than the average person’s point of view.
If you are not happy with this explanation I’m afraid I cannot provide you with anything else
There's also probably a lot to be said for his 3 or so years at HQ Land Command as assistant director intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. While I don't have any personal experience to speak of in this regard either, "intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance" at his level seems like he would have seen a lot of paid informant sources on the ground and been involved in analysis in terms of both intelligence and counter-intelligence of those sources. That could have been both sources being paid for information and to give misinformation, evaluation of who might be paying those sources to give you misinformation, and reports on a variety of mercenary activities. That experience might be doing the heavy lifting here.
And, there's always the chance that he's still involved in some capacity post retirement. If that continuing relationship did exist, it could mean he has information he's been asked to speak publicly from or it could be he's asked to spin public narratives.
What he has to say probably means something, but there's probably no way to tell what exactly that is. I mean, there's a wikipedia page about this guy's career. That's not true for most people.
The guy who wrote the article has experience in a combat zone and has seen more military action than he will ever have.
I served in the US military around the same time period this guy did. I was on active patrol. I worked with contractors. Does that make me qualified to discuss the potential leanings of a private mercenary army in Russia?
No. It sure as fucking shit doesn’t. I could comment on signal propagation or beam formation, or heterodyning, or many other things. But I would be unqualified to speculate on all things ‘military’, such as relationships with mercenaries. The author made a speculative point that I think warrants criticism, and based on the limited information about their background, I don’t think is particularly well informed.
Its make a critical reading of things because its too easy to make colorful or convenient assumptions.
While you were on active duty and patroling the streets this dude has been (and I quote) “from 2007 to 2010, he was based at HQ Land Command as assistant director intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance”.
Do you think in this timeframe and under this qualification he might have had the chance to gather information and intelligence on some of the most well-known paramilitary and private mercenary armies such as Wagner?
IMHO I reckon he had more knowledge about these issues than a grunt on the groun so, if you aren’t qualified to speak about these issues, I don’t see the same situation with Mr. Gordon.
Then again these are just speculations on his side but they are far more informed than what you are trying to sell me with your (willingly?) limited and inaccurate analysis of his career.
If you make a claim like that you need to back it up with evidence. If it was that simple, the west could simply have covered Wagner’s costs and removed them from the engagement. That’s not how the real world works, at all.
His Wikipedia shows no evidence of extraordinary experiences with mercenaries. It’s some basic on the ground service during the Gulf war as a captain and later being an officer in charge of hazmat management. In metaphor, working in a hospital doesn’t mean you are qualified to comment on aspects of open heart surgery, even if your job is also important.
The US only said it didn’t have any evidence it was caused by a missile… which should be read as we don’t want to acknowledge our information gathering network has info about this incident so we saw nothing 😉
We do know that the civilian radar in the area was jammed 30 seconds before the plane started pinwheeling. And that the plane was pinwheeling, which is most commonly seen in missile strikes.
Yeah I mean really. Fall from window, plane crash, and poisoning seem to be the big assassination methods. They should always be regarded with extra suspicion.
That would be fantastic, but I'm so worn out after the last decade or so it seems way way more likely to me that he lives until 98 with no consequences.
I’m sure it’s very stilted; I’m not trying to present it as objective, I just like the idea of a Putin-backed plan to assassinate the leader of the Wagner Group, resulting in the Wagner Group marching on Russia - for the second time - to give Putin a piece of their minds
My experience of mercenaries is that they are not too picky about whose money they take.
Who's going to pay them to kill Putin? Most likely not the EU, nor China, but maybe maybe maybe the US. However that wouldn't go over well with their war industry as a longer war in Ukraine means more money. It would have to be some private billionaire who's hurt so much by the war that he (and maybe his friends) decide that Putin is costing them more money than it would cost to dispose of him.
Yeah, the oligarchs. It’s quite likely that top people at Wagner are/were rubbing shoulders with some of the Russia’s rich so there may be more for the mercs in it than just the money.
Who’s going to pay them to kill Putin? Most likely not the EU, nor China, but maybe maybe maybe the US. However that wouldn’t go over well with their war industry as a longer war in Ukraine means more money. It would have to be some private billionaire who’s hurt so much by the war that he (and maybe his friends) decide that Putin is costing them more money than it would cost to dispose of him.
Exactly. This is pure speculation on the part of the author, and not backed up by anything.
Noone in the West wants Putin dead because his replacement will be even more hardcore. Every potential replacement candidate, people with real power, are bigger hawks than Putin. We might see Russia do a full conversion to war economy or some nukes flying.
Finally! A feel-good story of hope. Throughout history, conservative leaders like Putin have thrived on oppressing the vulnerable while grifting conservative masses. It’s always a delight to watch them burn.
I don’t know. I think he made the right move from a personal life extension standpoint. I wouldn’t kill the head of the world’s 2nd or 3rd biggest mercenary group but I just like hiking and cooking and reading at home. If someone came for me, I’d probably be like, “Ok, well, let’s get better at throwing kitchen knives in case this is serious.”
Putin has a way different life than me but I try to be empathetic. Being in charge of a whole mafia seems tough. Maybe we should cut him a little slack.
As their leader is further vilified around the globe over this latest murder
What a weird thing to say. Killing some high-level war criminals was a public service. It’s all the many thousands of other people tortured and killed because of Putin that I’m upset about.
Prighozin was funding much of Wagner himself, for example.
So, who is going to pay now that he’s dead?
And that Russia’s young men are not coming home in boxes because they are just not coming home (Russia doesn’t want the bodies so as to avoid paying death benefits to families)
I imagine these families will be happier and happier each day that goes by without having any information about their loved ones.
But honestly, the biggest head scratcher here is the plain fact that mercenaries “to dispose of Putin” have been available forever
But if Prigozhin was paying their fees and keeping them in check with his control structure how could they have been available to change their masters?
I see your reply to the article as you see the article itself: full of speculations and assumptions but the main difference between the OP post and yours is that you are a nobody giving his opinion on the internet while the author of OP post was assistant director intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance for the HQ Land Command.
Given the status I’m more inclined to listen to his speculations rather than yours, respectfully
You seem to equate a family not having a body with not having news of that soldier. But Ukraine has been collecting and identifying Russian bodies since the start of the war, and notifying families wherever possible. Many of the soldiers also have their own phones, and those phones have told the west a great deal about what is really going on behind Russian lines. Yet you seem sure that none of those soldiers would use their phones to speak of deaths within the unit. Interesting take.
You seem to forget that, following the bombing caused by a massive presence of phone signals in a single spot, Russia has been much more careful in letting its trooper use their cellphones. Beside that I imagine a family not having any news from his relatives at the front would be anxious for their loved ones and would start asking questions, even if it meant facing criminal charges. Ukraine can identify a portion of the bodies from the battlefield I imagine, and they would be able to reach the families of an even small percentage I reckon.
LOL. Think that over a bit and get back to me. Seriously.
I’ve thought about it and I really can’t see who can pay Wagner’s operators salaries, let alone arming them according to their standards (much better than the Russian army ones, can we agree on that?).
As far as I know Russia pays its soldiers 300-400€ a month and Wagner mercenaries are paid circa 2k (those who are not serving instead of being in a cell). Prigozhin was capable of providing for Wagner through his affairs in Africa and through the money he got from the Kremlin, will Putin be able to substitute such an income? What will happen if not? I’ve got my answers but they are just hypotheticals, who will live will see.
True enough. But that does not make either of us an expert on Russian affairs. His article does make one of us a fantasy writer, though.
He certainly knows Wagner better than you since he probably met them on the battlefield.
Works for me, lol. It’s just an opinion, and everyone’s got one.
But it helps, when forming an opinion, to acquaint oneself with all available fact first. And to be completely honest, you didn’t even spot the most questionable opinion in my post. (Hint: Who is Sergei Shoigu?) But keep working on it, because as far as I’m concerned the more people that are interested in the subject as whole, whether right or wrong, the better.
Thank you for taking the time to state your disagreement.
No problems, it’s a pleasure to have a conversation about these thematics since there is always to learn about any subject. In this sense, who is Sergei Shoigu? What I know about him is that he is a Putin sycophant only good as a yes man and coming from a political career scarcely linked to any military activity. Am I missing any information about the man?
Wagner was never a “pure” independent mercenary corporation. They were created, funded, and indirectly controlled by the Russian government to interfere in foreign conflicts to advance Russia’s goals while maintaining plausible deniability for the Kremlin. We can be sure that the Kemlin’s appountees are now stepping into leadership roles of Wagner. The question is whether Wagner will be disbanded or rebranded (salvaged and reconstituted) by Putin.
Prighozin’s death is international news, but noone gives a single fuck outside the spectacle of it. The man was loved by noone outside Russia, Putin has transparently murdered dozens of people far more important to the West without being toppled.
Russia’s newly displayed military impotence shifts the calculus, but Prighozin isn’t the guy to cause an international uproar.
I think the bigger point is that now Wagner may very well decide that he’s the enemy.
Given the fact that all they needed to do is wander over in the general direction of Moscow and it causes absolute chaos, if they actually had a mind to invade I think they’d win in 10 minutes.
I don’t know what is worse, a sociopath with nukes or the Wagner lunatics with nukes…
Putting our hopes on those monsters to help bring down Putin will end badly. It smells of the US propping up Bin Laden to kick the Russians out of Afghanistan.
Short-term gain, with massive long-term consequences.
The difference in this case is that no one’s helping Wagner. It’s one set of monsters taking down another set of monsters. Entirely on their own because they’re utterly disorganised.
But one of those situations is slightly better than the other. At the very least it will weaken Russia and force them to pull military forces out of Ukraine.
Putin has transparently murdered dozens of people far more important to the West without being toppled.
Russia’s newly displayed military impotence shifts the calculus, but Prighozin isn’t the guy to cause an international uproar.
That isn’t however the argument the article is making (noting I’m rather dubious on it).
They’re not arguing that NATO will suddenly invade because Pringles got SAM’d.
They’re arguing that a) the Wagner lieutenants are competent and experienced which makes it likely that they are not only capable but likely to be effective at seeking vengeance; and b) that Putin has systematically culled all the competent generals and hence there’s a reduced capability.
Now I’m dubious on the likelihood of the first, and while the second is true I’m not as convinced it will be a game changer.
I agree with the sentiment, but find that legality (the basis for it being extrajudicial or not) is a poor marker of morality that varies based on the laws of the country in question - for example: In the absence of a formal declaration of war, I think every invading Russian soldier killed by a Ukrainian is technically an extrajudicial killing (though in practical terms, if course a conviction won’t be sought). Morally, I think they have the right to defend themselves against an invading army that seeks to annex them.
Anyhow, I think we’re effectively in agreement and splitting hairs way off-topic, so I’m going to dip. Be well!
What a shit opinion piece. Every other word is just some attempt at making the piece more inflammatory. The whole article doesn’t say a single useful thing the entire time.
What the fuck? Is this what journalism is reduced to nowadays? Just posting some ramblings of a person whose knowledge on the subject is limited to reading only the headlines from some cherry-picked sources? At this point, they’d be better of just publishing completely random tweets, as they would have more useful info than this.
telegraph.co.uk
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