It doesn’t make a difference, we understand eachother either way. The language spoken in China is different to ours therefore words and abbreviations of words can have different translations.
I find the term ‘fertility’ instead of ‘birth rate’ weird. Plenty of people are capable of having children but are choosing not to for a variety of reasons.
Concepts of Some Common Birth Statistics Clarified
Utilizing information collected from the certificate of live birth, the Department of Health can develop programs to better address Pennsylvania’s maternal and child health needs. The following article will review the sometimes-confusing concepts of the live birth rate, general fertility rate, and total fertility rate in hopes of increasing the understanding of these topics.
Birth Rate:
One of the more commonly seen or talked about vital statistics is the Birth Rate (BR). The calculation of the birth rate is rather simple: total live births (for a specific area and time period) divided by the total population (for the same area and time) multiplied by 1,000 (Mathematically: [B^T / P^T ] x 1000). The birth rate may also be referred to as the crude birth rate or live birth rate. This simply means that the rate is related to the entire population and not restricted to any specific sex, race, age group, etc. A crude birth rate is a good place to start when investigating an area’s population trend.
Now let’s take a look at some rates for Pennsylvania and the United States. During 2006, the Pennsylvania birth rate was 12.0 per 1,000 population. By itself, the rate doesn’t tell us much more than the population of Pennsylvania accrued 12 people for every 1,000 population in 2006. Comparing the Pennsylvania rate to the U.S. rate, which was 14.2 per 1,000 population (preliminary) in 2006, tells us a little more: that Pennsylvania experienced a lower rate than the U.S. during 2006, by over two people per 1,000 population.
The most-telling use of the birth rate statistic would be to compare birth rates over a period of time. Table 1[^1] shows that the 2006 live birth rate of 12.0 was the highest rate Pennsylvania has had since 1999, when it was 12.1 per 1,000 population. Looking at data over time will allow you to see any trends or patterns occurring with the data. By graphing the data, you can get a visual representation of what is taking place. Chart 1[^2] shows us that Pennsylvania followed similar patterns as the U.S. from 1980 to 2006. It also shows us that the Pennsylvania rate has been approximately 12.0 per 1,000 population since 1995. It’s important to keep in mind that, by definition, a crude birth rate looks at the entire population and is not restricted to the female population, nor does it take into account age. This is important to note because having a large percentage of older adults in the population, such as we have in Pennsylvania, directly affects the crude birth rate.
General Fertility Rate:
The General Fertility Rate (GFR) is defined as the total number of live births (for a specific area and time period) divided by the female population ages 15-44 (for that same area and time) multiplied by 1,000. This can be expressed mathematically as [B^T / F^(15-44) ] x 1000. This rate is similar to the live birth rate except the general fertility rate relates to the female population, specifically females of the childbearing ages of 15-44, as opposed to the total population for an area.
The general fertility rate for Pennsylvania in 2006 was 59.5 per 1,000 females ages of 15-44. The 2006 rate was the highest recorded for Pennsylvania since 1993 when the rate was 60.2, and it’s also an increase of 2.6 percent from the 2005 rate of 58.0 per 1,000 females ages 15-44. However, despite the increase in Pennsylvania’s rate, the preliminary 2006 U.S. rate was higher, at 68.5. In fact, Pennsylvania’s general fertility rate has been consistently lower than the U.S. rate, even during the “baby boom” years of 1946-1964. The more recent differences (19802006) between the two rates can be observed in Table 1[^1]. The average difference between the Pennsylvania rate and the U.S. rate between 1980 and 2006 was approximately 8.0 per 1,000 females ages 15-44.
Total Fertility Rate:
The calculation of a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is not more complicated than the other two rates, but can cause some confusion if not fully understood. The TFR takes into account the age- specific birth rates of women between the ages of 10 and 49* using 5-year age groups (10-14, 15-19, 20-24, etc). Age-specific birth rates are computed the same way as the crude birth rates, except the total births and population are restricted to single 5-year age groups. Those age-specific rates (eight rates total) are then summed together and multiplied by 5, since 5-year age groups are used in the calculation. The formula is simply expressed as: (Sum of Age-Specific Birth Rates among Women for 5-year Age Groups between 10 and 49*) x 5.
The total fertility rate reveals the average number of births a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 women could have, if they experienced the same age-specific birth rates that were observed during a specific point in time. The total fertility rate can be thought of as a replacement value for the cohort of 1,000 women and their partners. For example, a TFR of 2000.0means, on the average, there will be enough children born (assuming conditions hold true) to replace the cohort of women and their partners. Therefore, the total fertility rate can be used as an estimate of the fertility growth factor in a population.
In 2006, the Pennsylvania total fertility rate was 1882.0 which means that there would not be enough children to replace the population cohort if conditions remain constant. Pennsylvania’s TFR has been under 2000.0 since 1972. However, it has remained relatively stable since then, although still below replacement level. Keep in mind that the total fertility rate is not meant to be used as an absolute measure of population trends, but can be helpful in understanding and analyzing them. There are many other factors to consider when determining population trends, such as crude birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns. The corresponding (preliminary) 2006 U.S. TFR was 2101.0.
According to the “Vital-Stats” interactive web tool created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pennsylvania ranked 47th for birth rate in 2005. Pennsylvania was tied for 45th for general fertility rate and ranked 42nd for total fertility rate. The state with the highest of all three rates in 2005 was Utah with a BR of 20.9, a GFR of 90.4, and a TFR of 2472.5 per 1,000 population.
Review:
The general fertility rate is an age/sex-specific birth rate, while the total fertility rate is an age/sex-adjusted birth rate. The TFR is an age-adjusted rate because it is based on the assumption that there is the same number of women in each age group. Since the total fertility rate is an age-adjusted rate, it can be compared to other total fertility rates, as long as the same age groups were used to calculate the age-specific birth rates. In addition to birth rates, there are other factors that you must consider when investigating population growth (such as mortality and migration rates). The rates described above are good indicators of what is occurring within a population, but will not give you the entire picture.
For additional U.S. birth data or to access the interactive web tool, “VitalStats”, please visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website at www.cdc.gov/nchs. If you have questions concerning the Pennsylvania data presented here, please contact the Division of Informatics (email: [email protected]) or visit our website at www.statistics.health.pa.gov.
VILNIUS, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Latvia’s defence minister ordered the army to help guard the Baltic country’s border with Russian ally Belarus on Tuesday, after 96 attempts by illegal immigrants to cross in 24 hours.
Latvia has “information about a possible increase in hybrid threats”, the Border Guard said in a statement.
Belarusian authorities were increasingly involved in organising the flow of illegal immigrants, it said.
EU members Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, which share a border with Belarus, have worried increasingly about border crossings since hundreds of Russian battle-hardened Wagner mercenaries arrived Belarus last month at the invitation of President Alexander Lukashenko.
Lukashenko has said several times that he has been restraining Wagner fighters who want to attack Poland.
Poland has also seen an increase in the number of mainly Middle Eastern and African migrants trying to cross the border in recent months.
Sweden has a slightly higher youth unemployment rate and they are only counting the actual labour force, i.e. people actively willing to work and not students.
I think it’s a bit silly to suggest that the Chinese government killed a bunch of statisticians at the National Bureau of Statistics for publishing this data that’s actually not as bad as you might in English language news sources.
I think it’s a bit silly to suggest that the Chinese government killed a bunch of statisticians at the National Bureau of Statistics for publishing this data that’s actually not as bad as you might in English language news sources.
That was a joke. I know China is not exactly like what the english news channel portrays.
The voters feel they have no alternative. They’ve tried the traditional left and the traditional right and both parties failed them.
Take El Salvador. They elected a fascist in 2019. He’s turned the nation into a police state and locked up tens of thousands of young men without a trial. But his approval rating is currently 80% … the highest in Latin America. The reason ? When he took office in 2019 the homicide rate was 51 per 100k people. It’s now 8. People can walk down the street without fear. Gangs no longer harass young girls and extort protection money from local businesses.
If we want people to reject fascists we need to give them alternatives that actually work.
Yup, one of the most fascinating videos I've ever seen was on the subject- fertility rates did go up, but all the kids ended up getting raised by orphanages that abused the shit out of them.
No one’s been able to reverse it so far, not even the countries that have increased child support. Personally, I think if we go all-in on restructuring our economy to support child-rearing then it will reverse, but I think it’s too radical and expensive for countries to consider.
Corruption has led the Chinese government to institute so many checks and balances on their reporting system. They don’t have the massaging flexibility that the US has.
“A study published by the Lancet in April, which looked at COVID-related mortality in 74 countries and territories over 2020-2021, estimated there were 17,900 excess deaths in China over the period, compared to an official death toll of 4,820.
Globally, the study estimated 18.2 million excess deaths in 2021-2022, compared with reported COVID deaths of 5.94 million.”
With basic math, that means China reported 27% of expected deaths, which compares to the global average of 33%. That’s… Within a margin of error, isn’t it?
Plus, heads rolled for the mismanagement at the start of COVID. The national government stepped in and fucked up provincial and regional leaders… Unfortunately for you, China doesn’t exactly get a glut of global pandemics that it can use to figure out how to stop corruption when reporting crisis numbers… Fortunately for me, they do have to report economics numbers quarterly, and the national government is pretty anal about not letting provinces misreport that nowadays.
To anyone else waiting until the new vaccine is available in September, consider protecting yourself in the meantime with Covixyl, which is a nasal spray. It doesn’t keep you from getting COVID, but it reduces the viral load for 4 hours, so if you do get COVID, it will be less severe (though you should still get Paxlovid at that point regardless).
reuters.com
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