As we get closer to reentry, the window narrows, and ESA’s latest prediction is a reentry at 12:10 UTC on Wednesday, February 21, 2024 (6:10 a.m. CST), with an error margin of plus or minus 26.62 hours
+/- 26.62 hours tells me that they have no idea which part of the globe will be struck.
Assuming every person is spread equidistantly over the earth’s surface the odds would be ~99.97% that SOMEONE would get hit, given ~8 billion tries on 1 in a billion odds
Using data acquired on 17 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:
15:19 UTC (16:19 CET) on 21 February 2024
The uncertainty in this prediction is now less than one day (+/- 18.82 hours).
This uncertainty is due primarily to the influence of unpredictable solar activity, which affects the density of Earth’s atmosphere and therefore the drag experienced by the satellite.
As the spacecraft’s reentry is ‘natural’, without the possibility to perform manoeuvers, it is impossible to know exactly where and when it will reenter the atmosphere and begin to burn up.
I saw one of these meteors a couple nights ago around midnight, while running. Thought it was odd as I don’t normally see that in my area. This explains it. Beautiful experience
earthsky.org
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