kescusay

kescusay , 6 months ago to videos in 100K+ uncommitted votes: Michigan rebukes Biden

Biden isn’t funding Israel. Congress is. Biden is trying to walk a tightrope of maintaining relations with an increasingly extremist ally (to prevent them from going even more extremist) and using diplomacy to defuse the situation in Gaza. He’s doing the best he possibly could in a horrible situation with no “good guys.”

Should he lose in November to Trump, Trump will immediately abandon Ukraine and try to help Israel completely level Gaza. So your choices are a guy trying hard in an impossible situation, and a guy who will definitely make that impossible situation much, much worse for everyone in every conceivable way.

kescusay , 6 months ago to nottheonion in Fox News Star: Black People Will Vote for Trump Because ‘They Love Sneakers’

Here’s the video, straight from Fox itself: www.foxnews.com/video/6347175332112

(Ugh, I feel dirty sharing a Fox link, but I don’t want asshats coming out of the woodwork declaring it’s taken out of context or some bullshit.)

kescusay , 6 months ago to worldnews in New Zealand repeals world-first smoking ban passed by Jacinda Ardern

But in this case, it was telling cancer-stick merchants that they can’t kill people, and then their victims rushed to their defense.

kescusay , 6 months ago to worldnews in New Zealand repeals world-first smoking ban passed by Jacinda Ardern

I think that accurately describes the power-brokers, the ones in charge. But I think the people who actually support them are driven by - and easily manipulated with - fear.

kescusay , 6 months ago to worldnews in New Zealand repeals world-first smoking ban passed by Jacinda Ardern

It’s been so disheartening to watch. There’s apparently a large percentage of the world’s population that is scared of every change for the better. Just absolutely driven by mind-numbing, counter-productive fear. And I don’t get it.

I mean, come on, these are fucking cigarettes. There’s no mystery, here, they kill people. They’re a poison product, and the monsters who sell them are selling gruesome death. But somehow, stopping a business from profiting off of these horrible, unnecessary deaths is scarier than the cancer sticks themselves? Why? Fucking why? Is it because literally all change is scary, no matter what its nature?

I’m starting to think we’re an evolutionary dead end. I don’t know how we survive past this madness.

kescusay , 6 months ago to technology in Don’t learn to code: Nvidia’s founder Jensen Huang advises a different career path

Try for a second to think beyond what they’re able to do now and think about the future.

I am. In the future, they will need to be able to perform tasks using joined-up thinking, second-order logic, and metacognition if they’re going to replace people like me with AI. And that is a very hard goal to achieve. Maybe not P = NP hard, but by no means trivial.

Also, educate yourself on Autogen and CrewAI, you actually haven’t addressed anything I said because you’re too busy pontificating.

I have. My company looked at Autogen. We concluded it wasn’t worth it. The solution to AI agents not being able to actually understand what they’re doing isn’t to amplify the problem by creating teams of them.

Every few years, something new comes along driven by incredible hype, and people declare programming to be dead. They insist a robot will be able to do my job. I have yet to see a technology that will plausibly do that in ten years, let alone now. And all the hype is built on a foundation of ignorance over how complicated a modern, enterprise-ready application is, and how necessary being able to think about its many moving parts is.

You know who doesn’t suffer from that ignorance? Microsoft, the creators of Autogen. And they’re currently hiring developers, not laying them off and replacing them with Autogen.

kescusay , 6 months ago to nottheonion in Fox News Star: Black People Will Vote for Trump Because ‘They Love Sneakers’

The thing is, it’s not. You can watch the entire video, without edits. It’s as racist and banal as it sounds.

kescusay , 6 months ago to technology in Don’t learn to code: Nvidia’s founder Jensen Huang advises a different career path

I don’t think most people grok just how hard implementing that kind of joined-up thinking and metacognition is.

You’re right, developers aren’t special, except in those ways all humans are, but we’re a very long way indeed from being able to simulate them in AI - especially in large language models. Humans automatically engage in joined-up thinking, second-order logic, and so on, without having to consciously try. Those are all things a large language model literally can’t do.

It doesn’t know anything. It can’t conceptualize a “summary story,” or understand parts that it might get wrong in such a story. It’s glorified autocomplete.

And that can be extraordinarily useful, but only if we’re honest with ourselves about what it is and is not capable of.

Companies that decide to replace their developers with one guy using ChatGPT or Gemini or something will fail, and that’s going to be true for the foreseeable future.

kescusay , 6 months ago to technology in Don’t learn to code: Nvidia’s founder Jensen Huang advises a different career path

I really don’t see it.

Think about a modern application. Think about the file structure, how the individual sources interrelate, how non-code assets are stored, how applications are deployed, and all the other bits and pieces that go into an application. An AI can’t know any of that without being trained - by a human - on the specifics of that application’s needs.

I use Copilot for my job. It’s very nice, and makes my job easier. And if my boss fired me and the rest of the team and tried to do it himself, the application would be down in a day, then irrevocably destroyed in a week. Then he’d be fired, we’d be rehired, and we - unlike my now-former boss - would know things like how to revert the changes he made when he broke everything while trying to make Copilot create a whole new feature for the application.

AI code generation is pretty cool, but without the capacity to know what code actually should be generated, it’s useless.

kescusay , 6 months ago to technology in Don’t learn to code: Nvidia’s founder Jensen Huang advises a different career path

Well. That’s stupid.

Large language models are amazingly useful coding tools. They help developers write code more quickly.

They are nowhere near being able to actually replace developers. They can’t know when their code doesn’t make sense (which is frequently). They can’t know where to integrate new code into an existing application. They can’t debug themselves.

Try to replace developers with an MBA using a large language model AI, and once the MBA fails, you’ll be hiring developers again - if your business still exists.

Every few years, something comes along that makes bean counters who are desperate to cut costs, and scammers who are desperate for a few bucks, declare that programming is over. Code will self-write! No-code editors will replace developers! LLMs can do it all!

No. No, they can’t. They’re just another tool in the developer toolbox.

kescusay , 6 months ago to technology in Tyler Perry Puts $800M Studio Expansion On Hold After Seeing OpenAI’s Sora: “Jobs Are Going to Be Lost”

This seems like a fundamental misunderstanding of how generative AI works. To accomplish what you’re describing you’d need:

• An instance of generative AI running for each asset.
• An enclosing instance of generative AI running for each scene.
• A means for each AI instance to discard its own model and recreate exactly the same asset, tweaked in precisely the manner requested, but immediately being able to reincorporate the model for subsequent generation.
• A coordinating AI instance to keep it all working together, performing actions such as mediating asset collisions.

The whole system would need to be able to rewind to specific trouble spots, correct them, and still generate everything that comes after unchanged. We’re talking orders of magnitude more complexity and difficulty.

And in the meantime, artists creating 3D assets the regular way would suddenly look a lot less expensive and a lot less difficult.

If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Right now, generative AI is everyone’s really attractive hammer. But I don’t see it working here in 36 months. Or 48. Or even 60.

The first 90% is easy. The last 10% is really fucking hard.

kescusay , 6 months ago to nottheonion in Fox News Star: Black People Will Vote for Trump Because ‘They Love Sneakers’

Man, I would be so happy to find out everything since then was just a gnarly fever dream.

kescusay , 6 months ago to nottheonion in Fox News Star: Black People Will Vote for Trump Because ‘They Love Sneakers’

When I first heard about it, I genuinely thought it had to be a fake story. And now I wish it was.

kescusay , 6 months ago to technology in Tyler Perry Puts $800M Studio Expansion On Hold After Seeing OpenAI’s Sora: “Jobs Are Going to Be Lost”

Yep. I watched their demo clips, and the “good” ones are full of errors, have lots of thematically incoherent content, and - this is the biggie - can’t be fixed.

Say you’re a 3D animator and build an animation with thousands of different assets and individual, alterable elements. Your editor comes to you and says, “This furry guy over here is looking in the wrong direction, he should be looking at the kangaroo king over there, but it looks like he’s just glaring at his own hand.”

So you just fix it. You go in, tweak the furry guy’s animation, and now he’s looking in the right direction.

Now say you made that animation with Sora. You have no manipulatable assets, just a set of generated frames that made the furry guy look in the wrong direction.

So you fire up Sora and try to fine-tune its instructions, and it generates a completely new animation that shares none of the elements of the previous one, and has all sorts of new, similarly unfixable errors.

If I use an AI assistant while coding, I can correct its coding errors. But you can’t just “correct” frames of video it has created. If you try, you’re looking at painstakingly hand-painting every frame where there’s an error. You’ll spend more time trying to fix an AI-generated animation that’s 90% good and 10% wrong than you will just doing the animation with 3D assets from scratch.

kescusay , 6 months ago to technology in Reddit's licensing deal means Google's AI can soon be trained on the best humanity has to offer — completely unhinged posts

Or the swamps of Dagobah.