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Second Thomas Shoal: China's bid to dislodge the Philippines

Dozens of Chinese ships descended on Second Thomas Shoal Friday because Beijing was probing what it sees as a weak link in the Philippines’ presence in the strategic South China Sea, according to analysts.

The showdown took place as five Philippine ships, en route to resupply the Philippine marines stationed at the World War II-era tank landing ship the BRP Sierra Madre, were intercepted by more than twice as many Chinese vessels, which video footage shows boxing in, or what the Philippines has called “corralling” the ships. A Chinese crew also blasted a Philippine ship with a water cannon.

Second Thomas Shoal, which Manila calls Ayungin Shoal and Beijing calls Renai Jiao, is a submerged reef in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines deliberately grounded the Sierra Madre there in 1999 to lay claim to the feature, and the marines living there rely on regular shipments of supplies, as well as construction materials, to keep the dilapidated hulk together.

China now sees Second Thomas Shoal as the Philippines’ “most vulnerable outpost in the South China Sea,” Jeffrey Ordaniel, director of Maritime Programs at Honolulu-based foreign policy research institute Pacific Forum, told Newsweek. “Hence, the sustained gray zone coercion. Other Philippine outposts like the one on Thitu and Loita Cay, are more permanent and will probably take more than gray zone coercion to dislodge.”

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Dozens of Chinese ships descended on Second Thomas Shoal Friday because Beijing was probing what it sees as a weak link in the Philippines’ presence in the strategic South China Sea, according to analysts.

“China Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia vessels recklessly harassed, blocked, and executed dangerous maneuvers in another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission to the Ayungin Shoal,” Manila’s National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said in a statement on Friday.

At least 38 Chinese coast guard, unofficial maritime militia, and naval vessels were detected sailing near Second Thomas Shoal Friday, though only 11 allegedly acted aggressively toward their counterparts from the Philippines.

“China seeks to outlast the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal until either the ship breaks up or otherwise becomes uninhabitable, or until Manila grows weary of running the blockade,” Ray Powell, SeaLight director at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, told Newsweek.

Aside from its defense commitments to Manila, Washington’s second priority in the area is “constraining China’s aggressive expansionism and its revisionist policies toward the ‘rules-based international order,’ which has largely prevailed since World War II,” Powell said, saying this aim of Beijing’s is front and center in the sea.

U.S. Pacific Fleet commmander Adm. Samuel Paparo, whom Biden has nominated to helm Indo-Pacific Command, said last week he believes China is directing its forces to act aggressively in order to make other nations think twice about sailing through waters the country claims as its own.


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