jantin , 8 months ago

To add a bit more and a few clarifications:

At current rate it is not possible for Ukraine to actually, seriously lose the war. Even if UA was forced to start peace talks today they would remain a sovereign state, badly beaten and poor, but with immense will to ally themselves with the West, and the West won’t object (too much).

So for a Slovakian politician there is little to no risk in becoming a putin simp since there is no way Russia can credibly threaten him within the next 5 years. The very same mentality Orban is most likely having - Hungary is sheltered behind Carpathian mountains so there is no actual risk of russian boots on the ground. All the cash and dirty tricks from putin without much fear of his aggression, what’s not to like.

Fico must have gotten some sweet deals from the east and also there are all the suspicions around him that make him look like a plain mafia boss - and if there is one massive difference between russia and the EU it’s that russians don’t ask unpleasant questions and don’t bother too much with all this “rule of law” thingy.

It’s too early to call russia’s collapse and I would not underestimate the country’s resilience to isolation. “Best we can do” is a regime change, but there is zero viable political forces which would be willing to maintain long-term peace. At least in Central Europe the thinking is “russians lost this one, and badly, but round two is coming, if not in 5 years then in ten”.