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Broken Lebanon cannot afford war, and Hezbollah knows it

With an economy in ruins and a crumbling state, Lebanon can ill afford another war between Hezbollah and Israel.

Iran-backed Hezbollah knows this and is keeping Lebanon’s crises in mind as it plots the next steps in the conflict with Israel, sources say.

As the war between Israel and Hezbollah’s Palestinian ally Hamas reverberates across the Middle East, the risk of war between Hezbollah and Israel remains higher than at any point since their last big conflict in 2006.

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Analysts say the Shi’ite group could escalate if Hamas appears to be on the ropes in the Gaza Strip 200 km (130 miles) away, while Lebanese leaders fear Israel could chose to instigate a major conflict with Hezbollah.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog has said Israel was not looking for a confrontation on its northern border “but if Hezbollah drags us into war it should be clear that Lebanon will pay the price”.

Decades of corruption and mismanagement by ruling politicians led the financial system to collapse in 2019, wiping out savings, demolishing the currency and fuelling poverty.

Seventeen years later, Hezbollah’s massively expanded arsenal has cemented a power balance in its favour to the dismay of opponents who say the group is once again deciding matters of war and peace.

This is totally unacceptable," said Ghassan Hasbani, a leading member of the Lebanese Forces party, a Christian faction staunchly opposed to Hezbollah.

Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said Hezbollah would be thinking hard about how reconstruction would be financed after any war, with questions over whether Gulf Arab states would help and how much cash Iran could provide.

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