Vladimir Putin isn’t close to desperate. All he has to do is declare victory, reality doesn’t matter after all, and then stop talking about it. It’s not like anyone’s going to challenge him on it and go “No Pooters, you lost you dummy.”
The Russian people would just go along with it because it means they no longer will get drafted. They all know it’s propaganda, but they also know what happens if they challenge the propaganda.
The thing about being an armchair strategist is it does involve having even the modicum of common sense.