But in this world, Netanyahu would have to trust Hamas to stage a small attack so much that he’d have the military stand down and give them free reign for like 16 hours. Absurd. Not to mention they were already getting small attacks from Gaza and regular violence in the West Bank from the crisis they created that has spiralled out of control. Again, extreme risk for no reward. And the most certain outcome would be gaining nothing and losing his power, legacy, and freedom when caught (if he wasn’t executed for treason).
In people’s imaginations massive conspiracies are easy to pull off. In the real world, conspiracies that would necessarily involve dozens to hundreds of people (and multiple branches of government) don’t stay secret for long – especially when they’re catastrophically fucked up. It takes just one chatty Kathy, one drunk brag, one guilty conscience, one failed attempt at blackmail, one low-level conspirator who wants a book deal to topple the house of cards. Humans are nearly as bad at conspiring as they are at assessing risk.