I expect any actual progress in this matter to feature heavily in a forceful response by the Chinese. If you follow geopolitics, China will be effectively hemmed in by Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. Their Navy, merchant vessels and trade routes will be under significant existential treat. My bet is that this will strengthen their resolve to take Taiwan by force to ensure that shipping lanes remain open. Otherwise, I wouldn’t put it past them to form a formal alliance with Russia and North Korea to secure a northern breakout.