A good chunk of people only look at their bottomline. And for some it's "we have less money right now than under the conservative government". Doesn't matter about Covid, doesn't matter about the war in Ukraine, doesn't matter about the world wide economy. It's just "we are worse off" and then it just takes the opposition to promise "we will make that you are better off" to move votes.
I don't really see what can happen that makes such a big impact that the government recoup their poll losses.
Cannabis is the only issue where the three parties are kinda on the same foot, otherwise we have a lot of conflicts, especially between Greens and FDP, which damages both parties. And the SPD is ... kinda there, a charismatic blackhole like usually.