To be fair, I listened to a lot of military analysts that studied the first few days of the war and Russia was really fucking close to decapitating Kyiv. Ukraine just came in clutch in the crucial moments, Zelensky survived multiple assasination attempts, Ukranian forces prevented the taking of the Hostomel airport, and Ukranian forces were forward deployed (without having being given orders) prevented attacks into the city. Any one of those failed and Russia could have actually taken Kyiv in a couple weeks.