While it is unlikely to have much effect on the front line, Ukraine’s campaign with the long-range version of the Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, appears meant to force the Kremlin to make difficult choices about where to deploy some of its most valuable air defenses to protect critical military infrastructure.
At the NATO summit in Washington this past week, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said the Crimean campaign would have limited effect as long as Moscow can move its bombers to the safety of air bases deep in Russia.
Over the past three months, commercial satellite imagery examined by military analysts has confirmed damage to Russian radar installations, electronic warfare assets, logistics routes and air fields.
“It is definitely fair to say the Ukrainians have had pretty impressive successes over the past couple of months,” said Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow for air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute in London who has studied the satellite imagery.
Ukraine is pressing the Biden administration to lift restrictions so it can extend the campaign to target air bases deep inside Russia, limiting the number of places Russian bombers can find sanctuary.
Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army Europe who has long advocated giving Ukraine long-range strike abilities, said he was impressed with the Ukrainian targeting methodology since the arrival of the ATACMS.
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