tal , 4 months ago

I haven’t been following it closely, but my impression is that this is bigger than that. Russia has been working on trying to kick the legs out from under French relations with African countries. Russia may not be doing so well in Ukraine, but in Africa, it looks like they’re making major advances.

time.com/6301177/niger-african-support-russia/

Last week’s coup in Niger sent shockwaves across not only Africa’s Sahel region, but the international community at large. Niger had been the last pro-Western holdout in a region known as Africa’s “coup belt,” fueling concerns the military takeover could destabilize the region and hurt longstanding counterterrorism efforts there. Yet the sight of Nigeriens waving pro-Putin protest signs and Russian flags has left many in the West feeling uneasy. These images provide a sharp contrast for a Western public that has frequently been told that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a “pariah around the world.”

ft.com/…/f9fd4d44-fb63-40c1-8280-a1a685c63396

This paradoxical list of visitors epitomises the growing security challenge confronting western countries in this part of Africa. On the battleground for great powers’ influence that Niger and its neighbours of the Sahel region have become, Russia is scoring impressive points.

Having learnt the hard way that their uncompromising stand with the junta in Niger was not paying off, the French could not hide a touch of schadenfreude on learning of the American misadventure in Niamey. Washington had tried a different tactic, waiting for two months to acknowledge that the coup in Niamey was indeed a coup. But whatever the approach, the stakes are clear for everybody: any vacuum left by western forces in the Sahel is filled by Russia, taking over the anti-terrorist fight with some short-term successes but also with its own methods — and agenda.

Stunned by Moscow’s powerful anti-western disinformation campaigns, observers note how Russia’s presence in Africa is being extended and reorganised in the “post-Prigozhin era”, as the Wagner mercenaries that the former Putin’s ally-turned-rebel used to lead are integrated by the ministry of defence. Africa is General Yevgurov’s domain: the deputy minister of defence makes frequent trips to the continent, often accompanied by General Andrei Averyanov of the military intelligence service GRU, a veteran of Afghanistan, Chechnya and Crimea.

atlanticcouncil.org/…/mali-west-out-russia-in-and…

In Mali, Russians reused the playbook from several other African countries (e.g., Central African Republic, Sudan, Mozambique). It just worked better in Mali, due to the circumstances. They prepared the ground through a disinformation campaign; when the opportunity arose (earlier than expected), Moscow offered an alternative to cooperation with the West that was tempting for leaders under pressure. The Russian package typically doesn’t include much economic support: no investments are to be expected. It provides some diplomatic backing, but the core is the protection of the regime, including limited arms supplies/sales, military advisers, and training. Yet, it’s not for free: African leaders are supposed to pay, often through the country’s mineral wealth.

politico.eu/…/france-africa-russia-emmanuel-macro…

How Moscow chased France out of Africa

Paris is pulling back, under pressure from Russian disinformation and Wagner Group mercenaries.

In recent months, France has also had to leave Mali and Central African Republic, raising fears of a domino effect across the continent as Macron winds down his country’s decade-long Barkhane operation to fight against jihadists in the Sahel.

The reasons for France’s waning influence in the Sahel region are multi-faceted, rooted in its colonial history and accelerated by local politics, but its troubles are also a consequence of Russia’s ambitions to expand its foothold on the continent, especially since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As French troops are systematically ushered out, they are in some cases being replaced by mercenaries from Russia’s paramilitary organization Wagner Group — which is led by Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin. In Burkina Faso, the country’s military leaders deny they have sealed a deal with the Wagner Group, but Russian mercenaries have been sighted in the country.