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APassenger ,

Agree.

My general opinion, at this point:

  • Ukraine has shown and singalled that without help, the lines will be moving in the wrong direction.
  • If they get their borders back (win), Russia will have a strong argument that the war was with the West, not just Ukraine. And I don’t know that Western politicians have the stomach for that kind of win, because the nuke thing, if nothing else.
  • The pols may be open to it, but even when there was less push back, I didn’t see the will to win. It was the will to not lose, and then trust Ukraine had what it took.
  • At this point I think we know that Russia and Ukraine will have a massive generation-size gap in their male populations. And at the end of this, absent significant help, will be a slow war of attrition with Russia moving lines often enough to matter.
  • Anything short of restoration or either historical border is a loss. At least of land and lives, if not other.
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