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But now, the popular route has been caught up in rising tensions as China’s coast guard ramps up patrols in the area – in what analysts say is Beijing’s latest effort to tilt the status quo in its favor by undermining Taiwan’s control of the waters.

The escalation came after two Chinese fishermen drowned last week when their speedboat capsized during a pursuit by Taiwan’s coast guard, who accused them of trespassing into prohibited waters around Kinmen.

The stakes are high, as the increased presence and closer proximity of Chinese and Taiwanese coast guard vessels raise the specter of miscalculations that could potentially spiral into open conflict.

China has already increased pressure on Taiwan after Vice President Lai Ching-te, a staunch defender of Taiwanese identity and sovereignty, won the presidential election in January, handing the DPP a historic third consecutive term.

Tian Feilong, a hardline legal scholar in Beijing, likened the increased patrol by the Chinese coast guard in waters around Kinmen to China’s “breakthrough” of the median line following Pelosi’s visit.

It’s not only “a declaration of sovereignty” by Beijing, but also “a gradual demonstration and establishment of a new normal” in China’s governance and law enforcement in the Taiwan Strait, Tian wrote in a commentary on guancha.cn, a nationalist Chinese news site.


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