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banneryear1868 , (edited )

Russia has already lost the war i.e. their stated objectives.

I mean one of these stated objectives was “denazifying Ukraine,” so even entertaining some of these stated objectives is to buy in to propagandized notions. The first phase was definitely a disaster for Russia, the prolonging of the border conflict changes things though. WW1 was expected to be quick before it became the “never again” meat grinder it did. Russia’s objective is to keep Ukraine out of EU and NATO, if not win territory, and if they can prolong the war enough to achieve that then they would have something to show for the effort, whether or not they gain territory. Maybe they can’t do this but that’s the current state of things at least.

There’s been more information coming out about how the conflict may have been resolved in Spring 2022 if Ukraine had agreed not to join EU and NATO, but were pressured by Western allies not to engage with these negotiations and instead rely on the support and supply of weapons. Whether that potential Spring 2022 negotiation would have been in Ukrainian’s best interest I can’t say, probably not at the time, but the price paid for the war effort in human lives increases with every day of the conflict. Western politicians are becoming less supportive now, what happens if tides shift and Ukraine eventually negotiates with Russia but on far worse terms? This stuff is still all up in the air, I’m just not overly optimistic about this big Ukrainian victory that the western viewpoint is sort of leading to, it’s too much like a story arc we all love to hear. It’s likely it will end like any war does, people wondering how it could have led up to what it did and how pointless it was in the grand scheme of what it became.

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