Not even wrong: predicting tech

There is no predictive value in saying ‘that doesn’t work’ or ‘that looks like a toy’, and there is no predictive value in saying ‘people always say that’. As Pauli put it, statements like this are ‘not even wrong’ - they give no insight into what will happen.

Instead, you have to go one level further. You need a theory for why this will get better, or why it won’t, and for why people will change their behaviour, or for why they won’t.