I appreciate the risk, but it seems that we’ve got a canon confirmation already.
There will be slippage. We already know that Voyager changed the timeline after the events of DS9. The Romulan Supernova and Picard season 2 perturbed it further.
The key thing is that there do exist some time crystals (as defined in physics not necessarily the glowing blue ones on Borath) which are events that are fixed points in the timeline. Those have to happen, like Pike’s injuries, and cannot slip too much without a fork.
Physics just doesn’t support the rigidity of precise dates in the timeline that would give many fans comfort nor does it support the infinite branching that makes everything meaningless.