Russia hasn’t been able to establish air dominance for 4 years, they advance at a snails pace, fighting for every 100m of land against swarms of drones decimating their troops, while Ukraine has been conceding each 100m of land by losing drones with as few people as possible.
Now Ukraine has invaded Russia, taken over a GazProm control station, and gained control of a rail line that Russia used to supply its troops on the front. For how long will they be able to advance those 100m by 100m, without supplies?
Ukraine now also has some F16s they can use to tip the scales in air dominance.
A month or so ago, Ukraine announced plans to produce at least one million drones by end of year. That’s a thousand drones for each Km of the Russian front, or one drone per meter, organized in swarms and waves with “mothership” control drones. It’s a strategy with no historical precedent, that Russia has no clue how to respond to… or at least has been highly ineffective in responding to.
Peace talks right now are being proposed by Russia, which usually means they’re in a weaker position and they know it. They’re running out of money, to the point that they want to crack down on the rampant corruption that held the whole system together. If they really do, then all bets are off on which general will be the first one to propose sticking Putin’s head on a spike.