Yes it is a theory about a conspiracy. However, it’s not a “conspiracy theory”.
A “conspiracy theory” is, by definition, lunatic - e.g. chemtrails, fake moon landing, vaccine microchips
A plausible theory about a conspiracy is not a “conspiracy theory” - e.g. Epstein didn’t kill himself, environmentalists protesting a cycling event are a false flag op. These may be wrong; they may be ardently believed without sufficient evidence; but they are reasonable explanations for the given facts.