Trump may or may not eventually end up in prison, but it’s naïve after the past 8 years to assume that there are only two ways this could all shake out, and that you can predict them.
A possibility that will almost certainly be less absurd than whatever actually happens:
Trump wins a second term, manages to get the FedSoc 6 to rule that a sitting president can’t be imprisoned because it would violate separation of powers. So multiple states are just waiting for his term to end so they can actually arrest him. (Feds can’t arrest him because he has pardoned himself for all past, present, and future crimes)
Then in the last month of his presidency he takes a diplomatic trip to Russia and just never comes back.