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frezik ,

What’s critical is where the stock market is at when you retire. Stock market crashes coming with general economic problems mean older people lose their jobs, can’t find another one, and are forced to retire with 40% of their 401k value knocked out. This is exactly what happened to people in 2008 and '09.

Conversely, the stock market did really well in the years after that. The people who were able to hold out past 2012 were able to get a nice nest egg saved up.

It’s a dice roll. It can work as one part of a larger system, but not on its own.

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