I mean, I don’t disagree that the switch has left Trump flailing, I just think that still happens if Biden drops out two weeks earlier than he did. It was clear by then that he had no chance of winning, and it would have saved voters a lot of fear and despair. You could argue that doing it after the RNC made the whole convention pointless, but given how poorly he’s done in a post Biden race, it’s just as likely that the entire thing would become an even more public meltdown.
Either way, I think the idea that this was a strategy is a fantasy. I think his actions and reporting at the time made it clear that he was planning to run, and it was only pressure from top Democrats that made him step down.